Balanced growth: Theory and evidence from OECD countries (1968--1996).

摘要

The idea that economic growth takes place in a balanced way features regularly in growth models. The existence of the balanced growth path (BGP) is a desirable predictive property of a growth model. The stylized facts of growth given by Kaldor (1963) help establish an empirical locus standi to this theoretical feature. Balanced growth is useful in calibrating a model economy to that which is observed. Economic questions are then analyzed and policy prescribed.;This thesis evaluates balanced growth predictions in 9 OECD countries during 1968--96. A simple exogenous growth model with labor-augmented technology and the BGP is used to organize the data. The OECD aggregate output data are adjusted so as to be consistent with the model and the OECD capital stock data used. Factor shares of output are calculated from the adjusted data, using the System of National Accounts (SNA). The trends extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and their moving averages are used to describe the raw data. These statistics are then used to evaluate the balanced growth predictions and evolve a set of new stylized facts, which involve per-capita output, capital-output ratio, capital share, total factor productivity, and employment. Further, a deterministic time trend model is developed to test the BGP. The findings from the hypothesis testing confirm those from the HP trend series.;The results indicate that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, balanced growth is likely to have taken place only in the U.S. and perhaps the U.K., but not elsewhere.