Exploring the association between economic conditions and crime trends in Ontario, 1951--1999.

摘要

The crime rates in Ontario fluctuated dramatically during the second half of the 20th century. Changing economic conditions are the most likely explanations for the continuously changing crime trends. But empirical findings from previous research are inconsistent. To control for changing demographic structure, Easterlin's age effects are incorporated into the statistical models. This allows the opportunity for a more thorough examination of the economic conditions-crime relationship. Several methodological concerns from previous research are also addressed. Time series analysis is used to analyze the data from the province of Ontario, 1951--1999. The results indicate strong associations between economic conditions and the crime trends, even when controlling for the age effects. Deteriorating economic conditions and a larger proportion in the youthful population tend to correlate with increased crime rates. More specifically, we find that the effects of changing economic conditions and demographic structure are relatively strong for property-related offences.