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Spatial interaction modeling of interregional commodity flows.

机译:区域间商品流的空间相互作用模型。

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摘要

In contrast to passenger flows, there has been relatively little empirical research on interregional commodity flows, primarily because of limited available data. However, a better understanding of the determinants of interregional commodity flows may be critical for both transportation infrastructure planning and regional development policies. This research attempts to expand past spatial interaction models of commodity flows by incorporating new variables into the model, using a flexible Box-Cox functional form, and applying the analysis to all manufacturing commodities. The recently released 1993 and 1997 U.S. Commodity Flows Surveys provide the empirical basis for estimating state-to-state flow models for 16 manufactured commodity groups over the 48 continental U.S. states.; Overall, the results show that the selected variables and functional form are very successful in explaining flow variations. First, having a common physical border increases trade between states for all commodity groups. As other destinations are physically closer to a specific destination, the amount of commodity shipped to that destination decreases because of demand competition effects. Similar effects are uncovered around the origin. Having a state involved in foreign exports and/or imports through a custom district may affect in- or out-shipments of commodities. Transportation costs, as proxied by distance, have a negative effect on out-shipments for all commodities. Population and personal per-capita income at the origins have significant negative effects, suggesting that increasing local demand at the origin decreases the amount of commodities available for interregional shipment. The usual origin supply variables, sectoral employment and sectoral value-added, are significant and positive for most commodity groups. Wholesale employment at both the origins and destinations are important facilitators of the flows of many commodities. As a proxy for intermediate demand, manufacturing employment at destinations has significant and positive effects on the flows of wood, chemicals, mineral products, and primary metals. The average size of industrial establishments at the origins has a positive effect in a few cases, implying economies of scale, but mostly negative effects, pointing to diversification effects. Finally, the population and personal income per-capita at the destinations, taken as proxies for final demand at destinations, have generally positive and significant effects on flows. In all cases, the Box-Cox specification obtained through maximum likelihood estimation is statistically superior to the log-linear form.
机译:与客流相比,关于区域间商品流的实证研究相对较少,这主要是由于可用数据有限。但是,更好地了解区域间商品流动的决定因素对于运输基础设施规划和区域发展政策都可能至关重要。这项研究试图通过将新变量纳入模型,使用灵活的Box-Cox函数形式并将分析应用于所有制造业商品来扩展商品流的空间交互模型。最近发布的1993年和1997年的《美国商品流量调查》为估算美国48个州内16个制造商品组的州间流量模型提供了经验基础。总体而言,结果表明所选变量和函数形式在解释流量变化方面非常成功。首先,拥有共同的物质边界增加了所有商品组在各州之间的贸易。由于其他目的地在物理上更接近特定目的地,因此由于需求竞争效应,运往该目的地的商品数量减少了。在原点周围也发现了类似的效果。一个州通过一个海关地区参与国外出口和/或进口,可能会影响商品的进出口。运输成本(按距离计算)对所有商品的出货量都具有负面影响。原产地的人口和个人人均收入具有重大的负面影响,表明原产地当地需求的增加减少了可用于区域间运输的商品数量。通常的原产地供应变量,部门就业和部门增值,对大多数商品类别而言都是显着且为正的。起点和目的地的批发就业都是许多商品流动的重要促进者。作为中间需求的替代,目的地的制造业就业机会对木材,化学制品,矿物产品和主要金属的流动具有重大而积极的影响。起源地的工业机构的平均规模在少数情况下具有积极作用,这意味着规模经济,但主要是消极影响,表明了多样化的影响。最后,目的地的人口和人均收入被当作目的地的最终需求的代名词,通常会对流量产生积极而显着的影响。在所有情况下,通过最大似然估计获得的Box-Cox规范在统计上都优于对数线性形式。

著录项

  • 作者

    Celik, Huseyin Murat.;

  • 作者单位

    The Ohio State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Ohio State University.;
  • 学科 Urban and Regional Planning.; Transportation.; Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2001
  • 页码 167 p.
  • 总页数 167
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 区域规划、城乡规划;综合运输;经济学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:46:44

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