An economic investigation of the dynamic role for greenhouse gas emission mitigation by the United States agricultural and forest sectors.

摘要

Global average temperature rose 1°F in the last 100 years allegedly due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In reaction, global society is moving toward coordinated action to reduce manmade greenhouse gas emissions in an effect to avoid possible future adverse effects. Under such an effort, the social costs for bringing down emissions, now largely caused by fossil fuel consumption are likely to be significant. High cost strategies may be required to deal with near term fossil fuel consumption until new technological developments reduce fossil fuel dependency or increase energy utilization efficiency. However, mitigation strategies in the agricultural and forest sector may serve as an important bridge to the future helping to hold costs down until technology develops.; This dissertation examines the dynamic role the agricultural and forest sectors can play in mitigation. A 100 year mathematical programming model, depicting U.S. agricultural and forest sectoral activity including land transfers and greenhouse gas consequences is applied to simulate potential mitigation response. The results reveal that carbon sequestration, a natural phenomenon occurring when carbon is breathed and retained in terrestrial ecosystems, is a very important mitigation strategy that can be implemented in the early decades. Although policy design must consider that the stored carbon saturates in turn could be released in the future. Also, use of biofuel as a fossil fuel substitute, becomes a promising mitigation strategy in the later decades, especially when the carbon prices are high.