International tourism in developing nations: An empirical study.

摘要

Theory. The literature on volume of tourism in developing nations, does not provide empirical measures necessary for rigorous hypotheses testing. While there have been ample studies on volume of tourism among developed nations, very little has been done regarding developing nations. Several theories from the dependency school, world systems and modernization offer theoretical explanations, but these explanations have not been adequately translated into empirical models, for studying the volume of tourism.; Hypotheses. To improve the ability to explain volume of tourism and to identify the factors that affect the volume of tourism in developing countries, the study tests four hypotheses based on the theories of Modernization, World System and Push-Pull.; Methodology. The study uses Confirmatory Factor Analysis to examine the factors that are likely to influence the volume of tourism. Shift Share analysis is also used to study regional variations in volume of tourism.; Findings. The study found support for the fact that aspects of modernization are some of the most important determinants of volume of tourism. This finding has policy implications for developing nations trying to encourage tourism as an important economic sector. Shift Share analysis revealed that in the last decade Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia Pacific and the Middle East have seen an increase in the volume of tourism compared to other developing regions of the world.