Economic essays on global climate change.

摘要

This dissertation addresses two aspects of the global climate change—mitigation and adaptation. On the mitigation side, it studies the mechanisms for countries to reduce emissions at lower costs. On the adaptation side, it studies the impacts of climate change on agriculture and how farmers adapt to warmer climate by adjusting crops.; Chapter 1 analyzes the potential efficiency gains for OECD countries to participate in Emissions Trading. We estimate a structural model of OECD countries in which GDP and carbon dioxide emissions are endogenous. Based on the estimated model, we derive the demand of emission permits for each country. The aggregate supply of emission permits is fixed by the international agreement. We then simulate the price of tradable emission permits and the efficiency gains from trade. Our estimated prices are high, relative to previous estimates, and the efficiency gains are substantial.; Chapter 2 discusses Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM has been proposed as a means of reducing the costs of abating greenhouse gasses, and for assisting developing countries. Although the CDM offers apparent environmental benefits, in addition to benefiting both investors and developing country hosts, it has generated considerable controversy. We review and evaluate the arguments surrounding the CDM. Then we provide new empirical evidence concerning CDM's potential benefits. We find out the marginal cost of emissions abatement is lower in most developing countries than in developed countries, so there are potentials for CDM to be successful.; In Chapter 3, we develop a conceptual model to study the impact of climate change on agricultural profitability and farmers' adaptation reaction. We show that climate change may increase or decrease farmers' well-being, depending on the signs and relative magnitudes of the climate shift effect and all other effects combined. We also consider lateral crop migration, the transition cost of setup and adjustment, and the shape and latitude location of the region. We conclude that, for most countries, especially developing countries, the most likely scenario would be one in which agriculture loses from climate change.