Growth equilibrium modeling of urban sprawl on agricultural lands in West Virginia.

摘要

With dynamic economic and social changes, increasing pressure is exerted on natural resources management. Agricultural land resources particularly face growing pressure of conversion to non-agricultural uses from population and development demands for land. The continual conversion of agricultural land may have implications in terms of the loss of prime farmland, irreversible landscape changes, deteriorating environmental quality, and interference with rural lifestyles. This study models urban sprawl on agricultural land in a growth equilibrium modeling approach where the population-employment simultaneous equations system is estimated using two-stages-least-squares while changes in agricultural land is estimated using OLS on West Virginia data. Results of the study indicate that population and employment growth induce reallocation of agricultural lands, with population accounting for a significant pressure on agricultural land conversion. Poor agricultural performance and urban adjacency significantly induces conversion and facilitates sprawl at urban fringes. Results also indicate that Federal and NGOs land conservation programs significantly reduce changes in agricultural land density.