Buscando la prosperidad: Migration as long-term investment in El Salvador.

摘要

In the present day when international migration and remittance flows are nearly universal phenomena, detailed analyses of the associated motivations and effects are essential. In many countries, the volume of out-migration has altered the social and cultural setting on a national level, and the sum of remittance income may total over 10% of a country's gross domestic product. However, the incentives to migrate or send remittances have traditionally been studied in isolation from each other and the competing alternatives faced by economic actors.;This thesis seeks to bring both depth and breadth to migration and remittance analysis by framing the migration decision as a form of investment in an intertemporal setting where remittances represent the return. The household reaches an optimal decision by maximizing the expected net gain from the potentially multiple investment options. The results of the theoretical model are found to depend critically on the demographic and economic characteristics of the household and the individuals that comprise it.;In its empirical application, the migration as investment approach translates to a comparative analysis of participation in various forms of investment and the effects of various demographic and economic variables. The data is further decomposed and the analyses repeated for the various forms of migration finance, as well as household-level indicators for remittances.;Data analyses are based on the Rural Household Surveys of El Salvador for 1998 and 2000. As a result of the large and persistent out-migration from El Salvador and the massive volume of remittances, now totaling over ;The results prove to support the migration as investment hypothesis for specific sub-groups of the sample population, particularly those households which borrowed to help send young male migrants. However, on a broader scale, the traditional model of individualistic migration remains a valid interpretation of the available data. Perhaps more importantly, the empirical results are suggestive of a pattern of migration and remittances aimed at sponsoring further migration from the household.