A probabilistic risk management based process for planning and management of technology development.

摘要

In the current environment of limited research funding and evolving aerospace needs and requirements, the development of new technology is a critical process. Technologies are designed to meet specific system performance needs, but must be developed in order to reduce uncertainty associated with meeting the needs, as well as uncertainty regarding additional effects that the technology will have on the system. The development project will have risk associated with meeting budget and schedule requirements, and with the completion of the development project plan. Existing methods for technology development fall short of quantifying all areas of risk and uncertainty, and do not provide a method for linking the reduction of performance uncertainty with the management of cost, time, and project risk. This thesis introduces the Technology Development Planning and Management (TDPM) process, a structured process using probabilistic methods and risk management concepts to assist in the planning and management of technology development projects. The TDPM process focuses on planning activities to reduce the areas of performance uncertainty that have the largest effects on system level goals. The cost and schedule uncertainty and project risk associated with the project plan are quantified in order to allow informed management of the project plan and eventual development project. TDPM was implemented for two technology development examples. The first example focused on the implementation of the process for a simple technology development project, showcasing the ability to plan for uncertainty reduction, demonstrate the resulting effects on the system level, and still manage the project cost and schedule risk. The second example was performed by an experienced technology development manager, who implemented TDPM on the hypothetical development of a technology currently being studied. Through the examples, the TDPM process was shown to be a valid and useful tool that advances the state of the art in planning and management of technology development.