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Stock market bubbles, time-varying risk premia, and monetary policy: Should the Fed respond to asset price fluctuations?

机译:股市泡沫,随时间变化的风险溢价和货币政策:美联储是否应对资产价格波动?

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摘要

There is an ongoing debate on whether monetary policy should react to asset price bubbles. In this dissertation we outline the current state of the debate and consider whether monetary policy should react or not and if so whether it should react moderately or aggressively. One key finding is that there is a large, time-varying risk premium associated with contractionary monetary policy. This implies that using contractionary monetary policy to pop a speculative bubble would increase the risk premium on assets like stocks, which are exposed to contractionary monetary policy. This in turn implies that an attempt to pop a bubble would not only affect the bubble term but also, by increasing risk premia, lower the fundamental value of stocks. In other words, an attempt to use monetary policy to pop a speculative bubble would cause stock prices to fall further than they would if the bubble popped on its own. This evidence indicates that it would be unwise to use monetary policy to pop speculative bubbles. This dissertation also considers four famous asset price bubbles: the U.S. stock market crash of the 1920s; the bursting of the Japanese equity and real estate bubble in the 1980s, the popping of the East Asian bubble of the 1990s and the U.S. stock market bubble of the late 1990s Analyzing these episodes indicates that using preemptive monetary policy to burst a bubble would be worse than allowing the bubble to pop on its own and then using expansionary monetary policy to contain the fallout. One important lesson from the narrative section is that a sound, well-regulated banking system can limit the damage caused by a bursting asset price bubble.
机译:关于货币政策是否应对资产价格泡沫的争论一直在进行。在这篇论文中,我们概述了辩论的现状,并考虑了货币政策是否应该作出反应,以及是否应该适度或积极地作出反应。一个重要发现是,与收缩性货币政策相关的风险溢价会很大。这意味着,使用收缩性货币政策来引发投机泡沫会增加股票资产(如受收缩性货币政策影响)的风险溢价。反过来,这意味着试图破灭泡沫不仅会影响泡沫期限,而且还会通过增加风险溢价来降低股票的基本价值。换句话说,尝试使用货币政策来消除投机泡沫会导致股价下跌,其幅度要比泡沫破裂本身导致的跌幅还要大。这些证据表明,使用货币政策来消除投机泡沫是不明智的。本文还考虑了四个著名的资产价格泡沫:1920年代美国股市崩盘;以及1980年代日本股票和房地产泡沫的破裂,1990年代东亚泡沫的爆发以及1990年代后期的美国股市泡沫的分析这些事件表明,采用先发制人的货币政策来破灭泡沫会更糟而不是让泡沫自行破裂,然后使用扩张性货币政策来遏制后果。叙述部分的一个重要教训是,健全,规范的银行体系可以限制资产价格泡沫破裂所造成的损害。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ali, Magdy Fattouh.;

  • 作者单位

    George Mason University.;

  • 授予单位 George Mason University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.; Economics Finance.; Business Administration Banking.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 99 p.
  • 总页数 99
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;财政、金融;金融、银行;
  • 关键词

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