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Bifurcation analysis of open economy new Keynesian models.

机译:开放经济新凯恩斯模型的分叉分析。

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摘要

In this study, we first review the bifurcation phenomena in dynamic economic systems and point out the importance of bifurcations together with a summary of the common types of bifurcations which have been encountered in economic research. Although bifurcation analysis is a relatively new subject with steadily growing interest in economic literature, previous research reveals the potential importance of further studies on bifurcation using different dynamic models.;Therefore, we continue exploring the bifurcation phenomena in an open economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to the open economy structure affects the values of bifurcation parameters and change the location of bifurcation boundaries. Thus, the stratification of the confidence region, as often seen in closed economy New Keynesian models, is still an important risk to be considered in the context of the open economy New Keynesian functional structures. Econometrics and optimal policy design become more complex with an open economy. Dynamical inferences need to be qualified by the increased risk of bifurcation boundaries crossing the confidence regions and policy design needs to take into consideration that a drastic change in monetary policy can produce an unanticipated bifurcation, if the econometrics research was not adequate.
机译:在这项研究中,我们首先回顾动态经济系统中的分叉现象,并指出分叉的重要性,并总结经济研究中遇到的常见分叉类型。尽管分叉分析是一个相对较新的主题,对经济学文献的关注日益增长,但先前的研究揭示了使用不同的动力学模型对分叉进行进一步研究的潜在重要性。因此,我们继续探索由开放经济学开发的新凯恩斯模型中的分叉现象。 Gali和Monacelli(2005)。我们发现开放的经济框架带来了更复杂的动力,更广泛的定性行为和政策对策。引入与开放经济结构相关的参数会影响分叉参数的值并更改分叉边界的位置。因此,在封闭经济新凯恩斯主义模型中经常看到的信心区域分层,仍然是在开放经济新凯恩斯主义功能结构的背景下要考虑的重要风险。随着开放经济的发展,计量经济学和最优政策设计变得更加复杂。需要通过跨越置信区间的分叉边界的增加风险来验证动力学推论,并且政策设计需要考虑到,如果计量经济学研究不充分,货币政策的急剧变化会产生意想不到的分叉。

著录项

  • 作者

    Eryilmaz, Unal.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Kansas.;

  • 授予单位 University of Kansas.;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 168 p.
  • 总页数 168
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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