Improving Dynamic Project Control in Tunnel Construction.

摘要

Project risks and uncertainties cause unpredictable project performance. This research intended to demonstrate that project control can be improved with the proceeding of a project, by exploiting new, available project information, and reducing uncertainties. The purpose of this study was to investigate effective tools and methods for dynamic project control.;The main research work refers to the creation of a project monitoring system, tunnel construction simulation, adaptive modeling, project forecasting and planning, and cost contingency forecasting. A project monitoring system was developed to capture progress data. It also provides project progress data for updating a tunnel construction simulation model, which is built on the High Level Architecture. A Bayesian updating simulation component was developed to automatically integrate progress inputs to update key simulation model inputs. Thus, the simulation model is able to revise the inputs in light of the actual progress, to reflect the latest performance, and to ensure the validity of model inputs. The simulation results are then used to forecast future performance, and plan future work. Systematic project schedules and plans were provided, identifying the production, labour hours, equipment hours, and time to completion, as well as the resource and constraints of each main task. Additionally, this research introduced and applied Value at Risk to forecast project contingency, by utilizing actual daily cost as inputs. The forecasted cost contingency, together with labour hours and equipment hours from the simulation model, provides the basis for project budget planning and allocation.;The web-based project progress monitoring system can reduce the time and effort needed for project control. The simulation model provides dynamic project planning and helps the project management team to gain insight into ongoing projects. The cost contingency forecast method provides opportunities to update contingencies, and allocate appropriate contingencies at project milestones, which allows companies to improve capital fund utilization. This research lays a solid foundation for future endeavours in how to make use of newly available project information to improve project control and planning as the project progresses.