Simulating the potential effects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the energy budget and tax revenues for Onondaga County, New York.

摘要

My objectives were to predict the energetic effects of a large increase in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and their implications on fuel tax collections in Onondaga County. I examined two alternative taxation policies. To do so, I built a model of county energy consumption based on prorated state-level energy consumption data and census data. I used two scenarios to estimate energy consumption trends over the next 30 years and the effects of PHEV on energy use and fuel tax revenues. I found that PHEV can reduce county gasoline consumption, but they would curtail fuel tax revenues and increase residential electricity demand. A one-cent per VMT tax on PHEV users provides insufficient revenue to replace reduced fuel tax collection. A sales tax on electricity consumption generates sufficient replacement revenue at low PHEV market shares. However, at higher shares, the tax on electricity use would exceed the current county tax rate.;Keywords: electricity, energy, gasoline, New York State, Onondaga County, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, transportation model, tax policy