Is Russia balancing China: If not now, when?

摘要

According to "textbook" realist theory, and to a number of American scholars, Russia is either already balancing or will soon begin to balance China and join the U.S.-led alliance by approximately 2020. However, there are important implications in realist theory and in recent empirical evidence that are likely to extend beyond 2020 to show that Russia is not balancing against China, does not have a great incentive to balance the latter, and should not be assumed to balance it by 2020 or 2030. Russia is instead likely to retain a special relationship and cooperation with China and devote more attention to power inequalities with the United States.;I studied Russian officials' statements, security and foreign policy concepts, and actual policies ranging from deliberate military deployments and alliance building to energy policies. I also used translated Chinese official statements and views and empirical evidence of Chinese and American military deployments. Finally, I compared power indices between the three countries. I analyzed and evaluated all these from the perspective of realist theory and its concept of balancing.;I found that Russia is not balancing China and argue that when, according to realist theory, Chinese power and influence grow to conflict with the U.S. in Asia to a greater extent, one is not likely to see Russia as part of a U.S.-led coalition. Instead, as they have today, Russia and China are likely to retain a cooperative relationship that in fact confirms realist theory. In the future, the U.S. must pay closer attention to this trend in order to conserve resources and utilize them better for her global role.