Value of flexibility and dynamic management of research and development projects.

摘要

In this dissertation a number of problems related to the dynamic management of research and development projects and portfolios are modeled and analyzed.; First, the management of an individual project is considered and the question of whether an increase in variability or uncertainty increases the overall value of an R&D project and the value of management flexibility is addressed. The value of management flexibility is defined as the difference in project value when it is managed "actively" compared to when it is under "passive" management. A set of negative results are derived that are contrary to what is reported in the literature as well as a set of positive results that are different from those reported before. Three classes of projects are considered based on the chance of meeting market requirements. In each case, the impact of three different sources of variability, namely development, market requirement, and market payoff variability on overall project value and on managerial flexibility is thoroughly analyzed. In addition to the theoretical investigations, a multi-dimensional version of the modeling framework is used as a decision support tool to assess the development process of a high-technology product and conclusions about the experience are drawn. The main contributions are to shed light on the impact of increased variability and uncertainty on different aspects of value in R&D projects and to provide an approach for establishing the results that is of value in itself.; Next, a novel formulation of the problem of project selection and budget allocation for R&D portfolios is presented. The main contribution, and the novelty, is to formulate a two-stage and interdependent optimization problem that links the R&D development stage with that of commercialization. In addition to project level uncertainties, portfolio level concerns such as interdependence among projects, limited development budget and resources, market payoff interdependence, and portfolio risk management are included.