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Regional estimation of extreme rainfall events.

机译:极端降雨事件的区域估计。

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摘要

The first part of the research deals with the estimation of extreme rainfalls for locations where rainfall records are sufficiently available (gaged sites); the second part is concerned with cases where rainfall data are limited (partially-gaged sites); and finally the third part involves the most complex situation where rainfall data are unavailable (ungaged sites).; For gaged sites, two methods were developed for estimating the annual extreme (AE) rainfalls based on the simple scaling behaviour of the first three non-central moments (NCMs) of the AE rainfall processes and using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as the parent distribution. The first estimation method was called one-moment (OM) method since it only relied on the first-order NCM of AE rainfall series in the computation of the rainfall quantiles, while the second method was called three-moment (TM) procedure since it used all first three NCMs of AE rainfalls in the estimation of the quantiles.; For partially-gaged and ungaged sites, a new approach to defining rainfall homogeneous regions has been proposed based on the similarity of rainfall occurrences at different raingage stations. In addition, a Principal Component Analysis technique was used to assess the similarity of raingages and to delineate homogeneous regions.; On the basis of the proposed method for identifying rainfall homogeneous regions, two new methods (PG-1 and PG-2) were developed for estimating annual maximum (AM) rainfalls at partially gauged sites. These methods were also based on the scaling properties of AM rainfall series for different durations.; For ungaged sites, three methods (UG-1, UG-2, and NR) were proposed for estimating AM rainfalls. Method UG-1 was based on the NCMs of AM rainfalls at an ungaged site that were computed by direct interpolation of the corresponding NCM values from the gaged sites within the same homogeneous region. Method UG-2 used the pooled data set from all gaged sites in the homogeneous region for this computation. On the other hand, the NR method estimated the NCMs of AM rainfalls for an ungaged site using the regional regression between the first three NCMs and the number of rainfall occurrence (NR) values that were interpolated from the NR values of the gaged sites.; Finally, to assess the uncertainty of extreme rainfall estimates, two new methods (CI-1 and CI-2) were developed for computing the confidence limits (CLs) based on these estimated values. The proposed methods were based on the bootstrap technique and the scaling properties of the NCMs of extreme rainfall series. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
机译:研究的第一部分是在有足够降雨记录的地方(有标尺的地点)估算极端降雨;第二部分涉及降雨数据有限的情况(局部测量站点);最后,第三部分涉及无法获得降雨数据的最复杂情况(未灌溉的地点)。对于量具站点,基于AE降雨过程的前三个非中心矩(NCM)的简单缩放行为,并使用广义极值(GEV)分布,开发了两种方法来估算年极端(AE)降雨量父级分配。第一种估算方法称为单矩(OM)方法,因为它仅在计算降雨分位数时依赖AE降雨序列的一阶NCM,而第二种方法则称为三矩(TM)过程。在分位数的估计中使用了AE降雨的所有前三个NCM。对于部分测量和未测量的站点,已经提出了一种新的方法来定义降雨均质区域,该方法是基于不同采样站降雨发生的相似性。另外,使用主成分分析技术来评估掠夺的相似性并描绘出均质区域。在提出的用于识别降雨均匀区域的方法的基础上,开发了两种新方法(PG-1和PG-2),用于估计部分测量站点的年最大(AM)降雨。这些方法还基于不同持续时间的AM降雨序列的标度特性。对于无人照看的地点,提出了三种方法(UG-1,UG-2和NR)来估计AM降雨。方法UG-1是基于未插接地点的AM降雨的NCM,这些NCM是通过直接插值相同同质区域内的被测量地点的相应NCM值而计算得到的。方法UG-2使用来自同质区域中所有量具位置的汇总数据集进行此计算。另一方面,NR方法使用前三个NCM和从测量地点的NR值内插的降雨发生数(NR)值之间的区域回归来估算未使用地点的AM降雨的NCM。最后,为了评估极端降雨估计的不确定性,开发了两种新方法(CI-1和CI-2),用于基于这些估计值来计算置信限(CL)。所提出的方法是基于bootstrap技术和极端降雨系列NCM的尺度特性。 (摘要由UMI缩短。)

著录项

  • 作者

    Nguyen, Tan Danh.;

  • 作者单位

    McGill University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 McGill University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Applied Mechanics.; Engineering Environmental.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2004
  • 页码 221 p.
  • 总页数 221
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 应用力学;环境污染及其防治;
  • 关键词

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