An analysis of the potential economic impact of Huanglongbing on the California citrus industry.

摘要

he disease Huanglongbing (HLB), also known as Citrus Greening, was first discovered in the United States in 2005, in a Florida commercial citrus grove. HLB is a phloem limiting bacterium that reduces the life span of affected citrus orchards. Since its discovery in Florida in 2005, HLB has not only decreased citrus production, but has drastically increased production costs. With California contributing over 80% of the nation's fresh oranges, it is important to attempt to keep HLB from being introduced to the state. Quantifying the potential economic impact of HLB under different management approaches is essential in developing the most appropriate mitigation actions to take if HLB is discovered in California.;The total avoidable damages by keeping HLB out of California over a 20 year period is simulated under two different scenarios. If HLB is allowed to spread throughout the state without any attempts to limit its spread (i.e., a do-nothing or pessimistic scenario) for a period of 20 years, today's total loss in production value, on average is estimated to be