Theory of Constraints Project Management: Improving Cost, Schedule, Performance, and Overall Effectiveness.

摘要

The purpose of this quantitative research was to investigate the effectiveness of theory of constraints critical chain project management implemented at the Air Force Flight Test Center in California where aerospace combat systems are developed and evaluated. Consequences of failed project management have been increased cost, schedule overruns, and undesirable performance. The greatest failure rate has occurred with volatile environments having inherently high uncertainties and dynamic risks, typical of flight test projects. In 2001, the Flight Test Center adopted critical chain project management as a solution to this problem: but there was no follow-up analysis seeking validation. Descriptive surveys produced quantitative comparisons of management techniques. Two questionnaires with checklists and Likert-type items rating project (a) cost, (b) schedule, (c) performance, and (d) overall effectiveness were used to collect self-report data from a convenience sample of 62 line managers (62%) and 10 senior managers (100%). Null hypotheses of no improvement for the research questions were tested. Line Managers: Bonferroni-corrected t-tests of main effects of cost. r(62) = --3.521, p = .0008, 95% CI [--1.5981, --0.44034], and overall effectiveness, r(615) = 2.194, p = .029. 95% CI [0.0217, 0.39266], were significant at the specified .05 level. Mann-Whitney U-tests of main effects of cost, U = 686.5, p .001, and overall effectiveness, U = 600, p = .015, U = 51577, p = .015, were significant at the .05 level. Senior Managers: U-tests of main effects of schedule, U = 23, p = .032, and overall effectiveness, U = 698.5, p .001, U = 601, p = .014, were significant at the .05 level. Bayesian analysis yielded significance (p .05) supporting these findings with strong specificity (97%) and sensitivity (76%) in predicting modeled parameters. Logistic analysis on the effect of overall effectiveness yielded significance at the .05 level, odds ratio = 5.9 [0.7704, 0.3623]. These findings showed project cost and overall effectiveness, possibly schedule, improved with critical chain project management. Recommendations included continued use of critical chain project management at the Air Force Flight Test Center and experimental research to investigate schedule and performance effects and validate the study findings.