Estimating the Predictive Effects of Price Subsidies and Organizational Ties on Tree Fruits Production in Haiti.

摘要

This dissertation uses a two-phase estimation approach to analyze the impact on willingness to increase production of tree fruits (mango) and to allocate land, by considering price subsidies and key factors influencing household choices. The first phase estimates the likelihood that a producer is willing to accept the offered price and computes the share of land that the producer is willing and capable of dedicating to grow more trees. The analysis also determines the realistic number of trees that the allocated land can accommodate. The second phase deepens the conversation by including the effects of producers' organizational ties on willingness, land and trees.;The analysis draws from household surveys of more than 780 Haitian mango producers and interviews of 30 producers in northern and southern Haiti. It analyzes the willingness to produce under three price scenarios by performing Ex-Ante economic impact analysis through the use of double-bounded (DB) Contingent Valuation (CV) approach. The results shed some light on whether the push to increase mango exports can translate into increases in production and meaningful endowments. The net effect is that a reduction in price variability through price subsidies, coupled with social ties, results in an increase in willingness to produce, to allocate land and to grow more trees. The findings emphasize the needs for policy interventions in Haiti's fruit tree sector.