The potential effect of galactic cosmic rays on global climate.

摘要

The validity of the hypothesis that galactic cosmic ray flux (CRF) may be driving global climate through an effect on low-clouds was investigated. A literature review revealed uncertainty regarding almost all aspects of the hypothesis, particularly the apparent CRF-low cloud correlations and the proposed mechanisms. While the hypothesis has potential, there is currently insufficient evidence to accept it as a climate driver. A radiative-convective climate model was developed to test the relative importance of greenhouse gases and the proposed CRF-Cloud-Climate Hypothesis to the global warming experienced over the past century. It was found that a CRF-low cloud link could explain some of the small-scale variability in the global temperature trend, but not the large-scale global warming. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in the results of such a simple climate model. Further investigation into the CRF-Cloud-Climate Hypothesis, through atmospheric, laboratory and modelling experiments, is recommended.