Team decision analysis and influence diagrams.

摘要

We develop a normative framework of Team Decision Analysis for team decision-making under uncertainty in the spirit of decision analysis for individual decision-making under uncertainty. It is applicable to the team environment where the team members agree on common alternatives, belief, and preference, but might not completely share all of the information needed to behave as a rational individual with perfect recall. We use influence diagram as a powerful and compact representation of a team decision situation and to perform more efficient evaluation and appraisal of the team decision model.; The presence of incomplete sharing of information among team members requires fundamental developments. We formalize team solution concepts that integrate the notion of optimality from decision theory with that of equilibrium from game theory. We recognize various simplifications of the influence diagram that reduce the information redundancy in the team decision situation. We propose team solution methods that exploit the available information in the influence diagram to improve decision quality. We develop a measure of the value of information gathering and sharing that allows the comparison of different information structures. We introduce the notion of sufficient sharing of information that generalizes the complete sharing of information. We consider various approaches that increase the efficiency of the evaluation of the team decision situation. All of these developments are demonstrated on some examples adapted from the literature on decision analysis and team theory.; We recognize when the information structure of a team decision situation allows the team to behave as a rational individual with perfect recall. In such case, our results are not only consistent with decision analysis but also provide additional insights that simplify the decision situation as well as its associated information structure.