The impact of acute security crises on the process of ongoing negotiations: Lessons from the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, 1993--1996.

摘要

This dissertation analyzes three acute security crises and their impact on the ongoing negotiation between Israel and the budding Palestinian Authority from 1993 to 1996. The Hebron massacre committed in February of 1994, the kidnaping and murder of Corporal Nachshon Wachsman in November 1994, and the string of suicide bombings carried out in Israel in March of 1996 are but three examples of how security crises, carried out by extremist parties opposed to a peaceful resolution of the given conflict, disrupt ongoing negotiations.; Utilizing David Easton's systems approach to political science and the focused comparison method developed by Alexander George, this dissertation examines the impact of acute security crises on the process of ongoing negotiations by focusing on four critical factors: (1) Decision makers' perception of crisis intensity; (2) the legitimacy of their policy of pursuing negotiations (policy legitimacy); (3) their own political legitimacy and authority as negotiators (negotiator authority); and (4) their credibility in the eyes of the other party (credibility). The study tracks changes in the negotiating environment that result from the impact of these three crises, and then analyzes the combined impact of these four factors on decision makers' willingness and ability to continue negotiating after an acute security crisis. The study relies primarily on interviews of primary actors conducted during field research trips to Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, and Washington, D.C., but also utilizes media reports, Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) material, academic studies, polling data, and more.; Following a detailed analysis of each case, the study engages in a focused comparison of the three cases in terms of the impact of these four factors on decision makers' willingness and ability to resume negotiations in the wake of such crises. Based on this framework, the study derives practical implications for neutralizing the potentially disruptive effect these crises have on the negotiation and bolstering leaders' willingness and ability to overcome the barriers to resuming negotiation erected by such crises.