The Role of Cognitive Capacity and Information Processing Preferences in Forecasting and Prediction Accuracy.

摘要

The cognitive process of forecasting is important for decision making, problem solving, and planning, but has been under researched in psychology. The present research looked at the relationship between the amount and detail of forecasts and the accuracy of predictions in a driving time prediction context. In addition, individual differences in working memory capacity and visual/ spatial information processing were examined for their impact on forecasting activity. The results indicated that forecasting detail, but not forecasting amount, was related to prediction accuracy; however, both were moderated by participants' task experience. Furthermore, working memory capacity interacted with object imagery usage to predict the amount of detail in participants' forecasts; however, the impact of working memory and object imagery was not transmitted to prediction accuracy. Overall, the findings from this study contribute to the literature on forecasting by highlighting important factors in the forecasting process.