A scenario-based multiobjective optimization method for water resources management.

摘要

In this research, scenario-based multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) and stepwise multiobjective programming (SMP) methods, have been developed to solve complex water resources management problems. SMCDA is an integrated methodology which combines scenario analysis, multiobjective optimization and multicriteria decision analysis within a general framework. The system components include system composition, scenario generation, scenario quantification, multiobjective optimization, and scenario evaluation. SMCDA is capable of dealing with complicated planning problems and could help decision makers obtain viable alternatives under uncertainty.; The SMP algorithm for multiobjective optimization includes a stochastic generating process and a choosing process. The former randomly searches weight vectors in the whole weighting space, and in the latter a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation model chooses the best Pareto solution in each step of random search. The SMP method could generate a set of Pareto solutions and present decision makers with the most preferred one. In addition, the method does not need decision makers to choose the priori preference for the objective function, thus making it ideal for handling complicated multiobjective models and easy to use with the aid of computer programs.; The application of the SMCDA methodology with the SMP algorithm is illustrated in the case study for the water resource management of the Hai River Basin. A computer-based decision support system with a user-friendly interface, the Hai River Basin water resources decision system (HWRDS), has been developed based on the SMCDA. In order to quantify the scenarios, a microeconomic multiobjective water resource model (MEMO) based on input-output analysis theory was also developed. In the Hai River case study, future development plans and water policy packages were assessed with five water policy scenarios. It is concluded that appropriate water management policies are crucial to solve water problems and to support sustainable development in the Hai River Basin. Among them, water saving policy should be a basic and long-term policy and the water transfer project from South to North is very necessary and should be implemented as early as possible.