Changing social values and democratization in East Asia: The self-expression phenomenon and citizen politics in China and five Confucian societies, 1981--2001 (Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Vietnam).

摘要

In this study I assess the prospect of democracy in six Confucian societies of East Asia, notably China and Singapore. Examining democratization in East Asia is important because, first, there is an "Asian Values" theory that argues western liberal democracy does not work within the region's cultural environment, and second, whether the authoritarian regime in China will sustain its rule is a question bearing tremendous significance. I propose a conceptual framework for the study of democratization to connect the processes of socioeconomic development, value change, and political change. Within this framework, I examine the dynamics of changing social values and democratization in East Asia, using a dataset generated from a multi-wave cross-national survey of social values, the World Values Surveys.; I find that people in societies experiencing fast modernization and socioeconomic changes become more liberty oriented, socially tolerant, and less paternalistic, among other things. This pattern of value change I name the Self-Expression Values phenomenon. The rise in these values shows that people are becoming more pro-democracy amidst socioeconomic developments. People with stronger Self-Expression Values are more likely to demand political openings, individual liberty, and participation in governance and decision making. They are also more actively engaged in civil society organizations and more likely to engage in protest behaviors. The rise of Self-Expression Values has contributed to the democratization of some societies in the rapidly developing East Asia, notably South Korea and Taiwan. More importantly, the rise of these values is changing the dynamics of politics within authoritarian countries, such as China, Singapore, and Vietnam. In these countries, the changing social values are accumulating strength to bring in democratic governments. On bases of this, I predict that democratization in China will likely occur around 2015-2020.