Effects of a Traceability System on the Economic Impacts of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak

摘要

This thesis creates an epidemiological foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread model for Ontario. Disease simulations are constructed to reflect three levels of the cattle identification and movement recording system. The outputs generated by the epidemiological model are used to calculate the direct disease control costs a FMD outbreak. In addition, welfare effects caused by a FMD outbreak are also calculated for each level of cattle traceability using an equilibrium displacement model. Parameter sensitivity was tested for both the epidemiological and economic model results. It is found that the benefits to the beef cattle industry of increasing the ability to trace direct animal contacts during a FMD disease outbreak in Ontario are less than the lowest annual cost estimate of a cattle traceability system as estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.