Development as counterterrorism: An examination of the Colombian conflict.

摘要

A way out of the Colombian quagmire remains elusive, illustrating the importance of analyzing new methods of mitigating and stopping future terrorist attacks. This study examined the potential utility of economic development programs as one component in broader counterterrorism schemes. This objective is rooted in the need to place the economy-terrorism debate in a contemporary, policy-relevant framework. Employing data gathered from the Institute for the Study of Violent Groups (ISVG), this study examined the utility of economic development programs with two types of analysis: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention time-series analysis, and a vector autoregression (VAR) structural analysis. Utility of the programs under examination was evaluated in relation to their influence on the intensity of terrorism, defined as the monthly frequencies for terrorist incidents and monthly totals for incidents resulting in at least one casualty. Data cover the time period 1995--2005. In addition to examining a single country, this study also concentrated on two terrorist groups, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN).