Peace with North Korea: An application of modern conflict resolution theory.

摘要

This research applied modern conflict resolution theory to the conflict between the United States and North Korea to determine how best to resolve it. The conflict was analyzed using case study design and grounded theory processes. Two research questions were raised and evaluated.; Research question one tested whether current U.S. foreign policy will ultimately be effective. This was evaluated through analysis of the military mission and of ongoing diplomatic initiatives such as the Six-Party negotiations. By thematic analysis, it was determined if current policy would most likely succeed, partially succeed, or fail to resolve the conflict.; Research question two tested whether application of alternate dispute resolution methodologies has the potential to resolve the conflict. The theoretical basis for analysis was The Third Side (Ury, 2000) theory of conflict resolution. William Ury's theory prescribes 10 essential roles that must be played by vested third parties before conflict can be successfully resolved.; The research developed a conceptual framework for general application of the Third Side theory, with each of the 10 roles described with respect to function and application. The history of conflict resolution efforts with North Korea was then overlaid onto the theoretical framework in order to match up concepts, actors, actions, and outcomes. There were three possible outcomes: the theory element has been applied and resulted in a success; the theory element has been applied and resulted in a failure; the theory element has never been applied and is a shortfall. The test was to determine if a scenario in which all elements were fully employed would result in conflict resolution.; Analysis reveals that current U.S. policy could succeed in resolving the conflict, if U.S. policy towards North Korea was changed from one of isolate-and-sanction to one of respectful diplomacy. The Third Side theory proves to be insufficient for application to international conflicts, and application of this theory alone would be unsuccessful. However, a collaborative strategy that incorporated an effective formal U.S. foreign policy with citizen diplomacy would enable the formation of a peace plan with the best potential to resolve the conflict with North Korea.