Land-cover change in coastal wetlands along the northern Gulf of Mexico.

摘要

Coastal landscapes have undergone rapid changes in recent history. This research quantified land-cover change and modeled future land-cover distribution at a fine-scale resolution for the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain and the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data sources were National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) maps and aerial photography. Methods included creating change matrices and detection maps using IDRISI 15.0, future scenarios using Markov Chain Analysis, and a spatially explicit model of land-cover change using a combination Markov Chain Analysis, Cellular Automata, and suitability designations. These data show that the rate and type of land-cover change is different between regions. In the Delta, the dominant trend is Marsh to Open Water transition, although this may be mitigated in part by coastal management. In the Coastal Plain, large fluctuations occurred near the Forest and Marsh boundary. Models of future change showed that shoreline stabilization techniques can reverse land-loss in this rapidly changing deltaic system.