Modeling the effects of carriers on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.

摘要

In this thesis we examine and analyze an S-Ic-I-R epidemic model where S represents susceptibles, Ic carriers, I infectives, and R the removed class. This model can be applied to diseases that can be transmitted through carriers, which are individuals who carry the disease and can pass it on to other individuals, but who do not show any symptoms. Two such diseases are Hepatitis B and HIV/AIDS. In case of HIV we consider carriers to be those who are unaware of their infection. In the case of Hepatitis B, we examine a model that includes the removal of susceptibles from the population through a vaccine. We will find the disease-free and endemic equilibria ( P0 and P* respectively) and prove their local and global stability in the feasible region depending on the reproductive number R0.