Predicting the effects of crop-based agricultural programs on household-level consumption in rural Bangladesh: The case of the Northwest crop diversification program in Aditmari Upazilla, northwest Bangladesh.

摘要

The expansion of food-production alone has failed to improve food consumption and access for the majority of the world's poor. The International Food Policy and Research Institute notes that it is common to have 20-30 percent of a country's population consuming less than 80 percent of caloric requirements even though national-level food security is at or greater than 100 percent. Hunger and malnutrition remain widespread in India and Bangladesh, and yet these countries regularly report surplus food grain production. My research delved into this paradox on a micro-scale, by exploring the connection between agricultural production and household-level food consumption in one sub-district in Northwest Bangladesh.; Specifically, the study aimed to predict how a {dollar}46.3 million crop-diversification project, financed by the Asian Development Bank, will impact the amount of food entering the households of small farmers and landless laborers in this area. Although the results suggested that crop-diversification programs could indeed have a positive impact on household consumption by increasing the number of nutritious foods produced and consumed by small farm households, and by expanding the employment opportunities---and thus purchasing power---of landless households, there were several barriers to the effective implementation of the program and the achievement of positive consumption outcomes. Poor market-access, limited physical infrastructure, weak institutional capacity within agricultural extension agencies, and the lack of agro-industries or other institutions to absorb farmers' risk all prevent the success of crop diversification programs in remote, rural areas.; Building upon this research in Bangladesh, and on the past work of scholars in this field, I developed a set of tools for conducting ex-ante assessments of agricultural programs, with respect to their probability for success and their subsequent impact on household level food consumption. These are non-resource-intensive tools that can be quickly and cheaply utilized by all project planners. It is my hope that this research, and the accompanying tools, will inform planners of future agricultural interventions and result in programs more appropriate to the communities in which they operate, and that better meet the needs of food insecure households.