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A methodology for capability-based technology evaluation for systems-of-systems.

机译:一种基于能力的系统系统技术评估的方法。

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Post-Cold War military conflicts have highlighted the need for a flexible, agile joint force responsive to emerging crises around the globe. The 2005 Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) acquisition policy document mandates a shift away from stove-piped threat-based acquisition to a capability-based model focused on the multiple ways and means of achieving an effect. This shift requires a greater emphasis on scenarios, tactics, and operational concepts during the conceptual phase of design and structured processes for technology evaluation to support this transition are lacking.; In this work, a methodology for quantitative technology evaluation for systems-of-systems is defined. Physics-based models of an aircraft system are exercised within a hierarchical, object-oriented constructive simulation to quantify technology potential in the context of a relevant scenario. A major technical challenge to this approach is the lack of resources to support real-time human-in-the-loop tactical decision making and technology analysis. An approach that uses intelligent agents to create a "Meta-General" capable of forecasting strategic and tactical decisions based on technology inputs is used. To demonstrate the synergy between new technologies and tactics, surrogate models are utilized to provide intelligence to individual agents within the framework and develop a set of tactics that appropriately exploit new technologies.; To address the long run-times associated with constructive military simulations, neural network surrogate models are implemented around the forecasting environment to enable rapid trade studies. Probabilistic techniques are used to quantify uncertainty and richly populate the design space with technology-infused alternatives. Since a large amount of data is produced in the analysis of systems-of-systems, dynamic, interactive visualization techniques are used to enable "what-if" games on assumptions, systems, technologies, tactics, and evolving threats.; The methodology developed in this dissertation is applied to a notional Long Range Strike air vehicle and system architecture in the context of quantitative technology evaluation for the United States Air Force.
机译:冷战后的军事冲突凸显了需要灵活,敏捷的联合部队来应对全球范围内新出现的危机。 2005年联合能力集成与开发系统(JCIDS)采购政策文件要求从基于火炉威胁的采购转变为侧重于实现效果的多种方式的基于能力的模型。这种转变要求在设计的概念阶段以及用于支持这种过渡的技术评估的结构化过程中,更加强调方案,策略和操作概念。在这项工作中,定义了一种用于系统间定量技术评估的方法。在分层的,面向对象的建设性仿真中,对飞机系统的基于物理的模型进行了实践,以量化相关场景下的技术潜力。这种方法的主要技术挑战是缺乏资源来支持实时的人在环战术决策和技术分析。使用了一种方法,该方法使用智能代理来创建“超常规”能力,该超能力能够根据技术输入预测战略和战术决策。为了证明新技术和策略之间的协同作用,使用代理模型为框架内的各个代理提供情报,并制定一套适当利用新技术的策略。为了解决与建设性军事模拟相关的长时间运行,在预测环境周围实施了神经网络替代模型以实现快速的贸易研究。概率技术用于量化不确定性,并使用技术注入的替代方法丰富设计空间。由于在系统之间的分析中会产生大量数据,因此,动态的,交互式的可视化技术可用于在假设,系统,技术,战术和不断发展的威胁的基础上进行“假设”游戏。在对美国空军进行定量技术评估的背景下,将本文开发的方法应用于概念性远程打击飞机和系统架构。

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