The interplay between natural disasters, vulnerability, and sustainable development: Global trends and local practice in Istanbul.

摘要

This dissertation examines the interplay between natural disasters, vulnerability, and sustainable development. It analyzes the way natural disasters influence sustainable development, in addition to investigating how sustainability of a development shapes its vulnerability from natural disasters.;The theoretical part of this dissertation provides (a) a conceptual foundation examining the development of the field of hazards and disaster research, evolving theories and models, and the transformation of risk management; (b) an examination of global disaster patterns, discussion on forces and trends influencing vulnerability (climate change, land degradation, globalization, and urbanization), and discourses on the relationship between development and disasters; and (c) an exploration of vulnerability and risk reduction in urban settlements (informal settlements and modern concrete agglomerations).;The analytical part of this dissertation provides (a) a quantitative study on the interplay between sustainable development and natural disasters in twenty countries through a period from 1960 to 2004, and (b) a qualitative study on the interplay between urban development, vulnerability, and risk management in the earthquake prone city of Istanbul.;The quantitative study has two sets of analyses. The first set, graphical analyses on individual countries examine whether natural disaster have caused a significant effect on any four aspects of development (social, economic, physical, and institutional). The second set, statistical analyses on the twenty countries investigate correlations of sustainable development levels to their vulnerability from disasters.;The qualitative study examines pre- and post- earthquake development, planning, and risk management in Istanbul. In pre-earthquake analysis, the study focuses on understanding the role of urban development in the making of the 1999 earthquake disaster and creating the socio-economic and spatial vulnerability in the city. In post-earthquake analysis, the study aims to find out the impact of the 1999 earthquakes on urban planning and risk management activities, and through a qualitative interview process examines whether socio-economic disparities in the city create differences in the way local governments and urban communities adopt and employ risk and urban management activities.