Optimizing the regional hydrogen transition with exogenous demand: Tool development and empirical study.

摘要

ydrogen as an alternative fuel promises reduction of greenhouse gas, pollutants and oil consumption from transportation. However, the barriers to a hydrogen economy are multi-dimensional, significant and complex. Existing studies, mostly addressing these barriers separately, are limited in providing an integrated understanding of hydrogen transition. Built on welfare economics, mathematical programming, and existing hydrogen infrastructure models, this dissertation develops a dynamic programming model to optimize the hydrogen transition based on social welfare maximization. Simplified by exogenous hydrogen demand and regional scope, the model identifies the optimal sequence of infrastructure configurations in terms of when, where, by what technology and at what size to build up each facility while minimizing the net present value of social cost, including technology, environmental, and fuel accessibility costs. Empirically, the optimal 2010--2060 sequence specifically for Southern California reveals several technology trends: industry hydrogen toward distributed toward central production, trucking toward pipeline distribution, open CO2 emission toward carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and natural gas toward biomass toward coal on feedstock. Water electrolysis is considered but does not enter the optimal sequence. Economic analysis shows that the hydrogen industry in Southern California can potentially balance investment in 10 years by charging