Complex interactions shaping mink frog (Rana septentrionalis ) distribution in New York State: Pond factors, landscape connectivity and climate change.

摘要

Amphibian populations are declining worldwide due to synergic effects of local and global factors. In this study I examined the influence of multiple scale variables and climate change on pond occupancy by a cold adapted anuran, the mink frog in New York. I used repeated night calling surveys and logistic regression to obtain estimates of pond occupancy probability. The greatest number of detections occurred at least 4 hours after sunset, between July 15th and August 15th. Mink frog distribution was positively influenced by pond size (> 1.5 ha) and presence of beaver disturbance. Mean July temperature had a strong negative correlation with site occupancy. At temperatures 19.5°C pond occupancy decreased suggesting that climate warming has a potential negative effect on mink frog distribution. I modeled landscape permeability for amphibians using a continuous dataset and a friction based approach, and determined pond connectivity and mortality hot spots in northern New York.; Keywords. Rana septentrionalis, pond occupancy, detection, presence/absence, climate change, beaver disturbance, landscape permeability, connectivity, GIS, interactions, model selection, New York State, road mortality