War, peace, and transportation: Using computational modeling to explore the effect of transportation technology on war.

摘要

Studies investigating the effect of interdependence on conflict have produced contradictory empirical findings. Studies using datasets from the mid-19th century onward have found that increasing levels of trade between nations increase the likelihood of peace. Studies incorporating a longer time-frame have suggested the opposite. I theorize that the effect of interdependence on war is a result of the level of interconnectedness in a system of trading countries. I test the theory using a computational model which places countries in a randomly configured system. As time passes, transportation technology increases and the effect of various levels of interdependence on war is observed. The patterns of warfare which emerge from the computational model suggest that transportation technology had a variable effect in determining if countries go to war.