TRANSPORTATION NETWORK SIMULATION FOR DYNAMICORIGIN-DESTINATION MATRIX UNDER EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE

摘要

The ultimate goal of this study is to develop a method with a software package that allows real-timevisualization of traffic flows in a transportation network immediately after a disaster event. This willassist first responders to develop optimal and adaptive strategies to minimize human and property lossesimmediately after the disaster. Disasters include those due to natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes),technological accidents and terrorist attacks. It is envisioned that appropriate sensors will exist for thispurpose to monitor and detect not only structural damage but also traffic behavior (speed and volume) atoptimal locations. Emerging sensors for this purpose include optical, MEMS (Micro Electro-MechanicalSystems) and traditional electronic-mechanical types with wireless or wireless-internet hybrid capabilityfor transmission of data to traffic control centers where the data are gathered, processed and analyzed forvisualization to facilitate rapid decision making. Currently, most transportation network analysis isperformed on a fixed origin-destination (OD) matrix under the assumption of the equilibrium of trafficflow. In this study, we demonstrate a model that is applied to Los Angeles area highway networkintroducing into the analysis dynamical nature of OD matrix, which reflects the effect of urban seismicdamage on the societal transportation needs immediately after an earthquake. HAZUS and other urbandamage estimation codes are used for this purpose under the assumption that the Los Angeles area issubjected to the scenario earthquake of Malibu Coast (M7.3) in conjunction with the PGA valuessimulated by EPEDAT for that earthquake. The demonstration shows that the travel pattern (and henceOD matrix) will significantly change and traffic flow visualization identifies location of severe congestionreflecting the need for emergency vehicles converging to and/or leaving from the severely damaged areasutilizing the transportation network which is possibly also damaged.