Mental Models and Dynamic Decision Making: An Experimental Approach for Testing System Methodologies

摘要

The effect systems thinking and system dynamics on a person's dynamic decision-making abilities is yet not fully known. To explore this relationship, a controlled experimental study was conducted. Results of the study show that most participants initially had poor understanding of basic dynamic situations. However, the completeness and accuracy of their mental models improved considerably with system interventions. Specifically participants' ability to discern between stocks and flows, identify causal relationships and feedback improved by around 27% after systems thinking intervention. These abilities further increased by around 4% after participants underwent a system dynamics intervention. Interestingly, in complex tasks, systems thinking hardly made any positive effect on participants' decision-making. However, for the same tasks, participants' mental models improved significantly after system dynamics intervention. This study contributes to the long-standing debate on the links between system methodologies and dynamic decision-making: particularly the relative contribution of systems thinking and system dynamics to decision-making.