Hard-disk maker 1973-93 overshoot rooted in disruptive innovation

摘要

Model analysis in system dynamics (SD) entails articulating exactly how the structure of circular, feedback relations among variables in a system determines its performance through time. This article combines disruptive innovation (DI) theory with SD to show the use and benefits of model analysis with the pathway participation metric (PPM), implemented in the Digest~(R) software. The model replicates the hard-disk makers' overshoot and collapse dynamics that DI allegedly caused. Multiple insights emerge from the dynamics the model computes. Model analysis shows that, over five distinct time phases, four different feedback loops become most prominent in generating the hard-disk makers' population dynamics from 1973 to 1993. And Digest~(R) helps detect exactly how changes in loop polarity and prominence determine system performance.