Modeling from the Bottom Up: An Attempt to Provide More Science to the Craft of Model Conceptualization

摘要

System Dynamics is considered to be more a craft than science. Some first steps toovercome the barriers to become more accepted in the wider scientific community, several authors have detailed the methodological processes that underlie the system dynamics modeling approach (e.g., Richardson et al.(1995), detailed the group model building process; Howick et al. (2006) initiated the idea to provide more traceability in the model conceptualization phase. In this paper, we want to contribute to the scientification of the System Dynamics methodology, especially in the conceptualization phase of the model building.The approach 'Modeling from the Bottom Up' guides the model development from empirical data to the formulation of the simulation model.The creation process advances along the sequence of individual cognitive mapping interviews, synthetic development of collective cause maps, the creation of static and dynamic hypotheses and their transition in full fledged stock and flow simulations. The paper concludes with a discussion of the advantages,disadvantages and strength, weaknesses of the outlined approach and portraits possible future research threads.