Geostatistical modeling of ice content within the 'Glacier Bonnard' (Switzerland)

摘要

The Bonnard glaciated mass (Valais region, Switzerland) overhangs the village of Zinal and its slow downward constant creep constitutes an environmental hazard. Ice content data have been acquired to better assess globally and locally the ice amount within the area, in order to evaluate the glacier's global dynamic and future evolution. Two ice content modeling approaches are tested: (i) a direct modeling using 3D simulations and (ii) to account for the relationship between the presence of ice and the lithology, a nested approach which consists in (1) simulating lithology with the plurigaussian method and then (2) populating each facies with ice content values. Both approaches are compared in terms of ice content prediction and of global ice mass.