Reliability-based design optimization with uncertain cost

摘要

This paper presents techniques for estimation of seismic losses, followed by a discussion of how to define and minimize the associated seismic risk. The backdrop for the developments is a new computer program, called Rt, which runs reliability analyses in conjunction with many probabilistic models. A library of probabilistic models for hazards, response, damage, and loss is implemented in Rt. These models are employed in this paper for seismic loss estimation. Upon computing the all-important cost exceedance probability curve, risk measures are defined and minimized. A numerical example is presented, in which 622 buildings are subjected to multiple sources of seismic hazard. The cost of retrofit of the building stock is included in the probability curve, which facilitates the computation of the optimum level of retrofit.