FORECAST OF SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRADIATION IN BRASIL USING NUMERICAL MODELS AND STATISCAL POSTPROCESSING

摘要

This work aims at establishing a methodology to get reliable solar irradiation forecasts for the BrazilianrnNortheastern region by using WRF model together with statistical methods for post-processing data. The keyrnissue is concerning how to deal with the diversity of typical climate features occurring in the regionrnpresenting the largest solar energy resource in Brazil. The solar irradiance forecasts for 24h in advance werernobtained using the WRF model. In order to reduce uncertainties, cluster analysis technique was employed tornfind out areas presenting similar climate features. Comparison analysis between WRF model outputs andrnobservational data were performed to evaluate the model skill in forecasting the surface solar irradiation.rnAfter all, post-processing of WRF outputs were performed using artificial neural networks and multiplernregression methods in order to refine short-term solar irradiation forecasts.