A TEST ON META-SYNTHESIS SYSTEM APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN CHINA

摘要

Meta-synthesis method is proposed to tackle with complex, open and giant systems by Chinese scientists Qian, X.S. and his colleagues around the start of 1990s. It emphasizes the synthesis of collected information and knowledge of various kinds of experts, and connecting quantitative methods with qualitative knowledge. Later it is evolved into Hall of Workshop for Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE), which emphasizes to make use of breaking advances in information technologies. In 1999, Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) approved a 4-year major project engaging to implement a pilot prototype for HWMSE for macroeconomic decision making. We participate in this project. For the concerned problem in macroeconomics in this project, we have designed a flowchart for realizing the meta-synthesis system approach from qualitative to quantitative. The main ideas of this flowchart consists of three phases; synchronous meeting I; asynchronous analysis; synchronous meeting II. This January a test was taken to the forecasting of GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of China in 2003. In this paper, the procedure of the test is given with relevant tools applied to each phase of the GDP growth forecasting. From this test, three systems of the main parts of HWMSE, expert system, knowledge system and machine system are clearly reflected where some experiences have been practically acquired about applying meta-synthesis approach and HWMSE.