HOW WILL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES RESPOND TO CHANGES IN ENERGY PRICES?

摘要

Several manufacturing industries in OECD countries face an increased competitive pressure, particularly high-energy intensity industries that compete on an international market. In the coming years these industries may face both a general increase in energy prices and changes in relative prices. Factors driving this development are increased global energy scarcity, higher taxes to limit CO_2 emissions, and changes in the structure of competition in energy markets. For Europe in particular, one may expect that increased interconnectivity between gas markets and electricity markets will change the relative prices between countries and between energy carriers. Our focus is on manufacturing industries’ demand for energy. The response to future changes in absolute and relative prices of the manufacturing industry in an OECD country depend on the existing mix of manufacturing industries, particularly with respect to energy intensity in production. Furthermore, it is influenced by initial prices on energy carriers in the country, degree of competition with manufacturing in other countries, and country-specific regulations. The objective of this paper is to provide insight into the energy demand response for the overall manufacturing sector in selected OECD countries and for particular manufacturing sub-industries. Although we include several energy carriers in our analysis, our main emphasis is on industrial demand for natural gas.