A SIMULATION MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE UNCERTAINTIES OF WIND FARM PRODUCTION

摘要

Power generation from wind farms is known to be uncertain due to its dependence on an uncontrollable natural resource, the wind. While it is well known that wind speeds and the system availability are the two chief sources of uncertainty in wind farm yield estimation, other features like the cross-correlation between wind speeds at different turbines (spatial correlations) and correlation of turbine availability to its wind speed, can add to the error in AEP calculation. In this paper we present a simulation model for evaluating the uncertainties in power production on a wind farm due to various features of wind speed and turbine availbility.