The Application of Risk Quantified analysis in Hydro-electrical Engineering Projects: The research and development of cost reserve estimating system

摘要

Compared with other construction project, hydro-electrical projects have large investment, long construction circle and excessive uncertainty. The present method is that the basic reserve and price variation reserve of investment are added according to the subjective assessment of budgetary composer at the base of project basic budget. But the fact proved that this method couldn't fill the demand of the changing market and project environment. This paper will estimate the assurance rate and probability distribution with the method of risk identification and quantification, then quantitatively analyze the reserve of investment cost. The reserve estimation system was made with the Visual Basic software and was proved to be accurate and practical.