A Method of Emergency Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Context Time Series

摘要

How to detect and predict the critical situation in large-scale activities is a very important research issue. The existing researches of emergency prediction are mainly focus on the micro events in some specific fields. Applying existing results directly to predict the critical situation in large-scale activity is a big challenge. In this paper, we show a novel method to predict emergency based on historical data analysis. We integrate relevant research results into a unified spatiotemporal model. Firstly, constructing the historical spatiotemporal context time series based on historical activity data. Then, dividing the time series into time period and time window. Finally, exploiting the time series' spatiotemporal patterns to predict the emergency of current activity. Experimental results show that the proposed method can achieve better prediction of large-scale activity emergencies in a specific venue.