On agent-based approach to influenza and acute respiratory virus infection simulation

摘要

The paper analyzes existing approaches of mathematical modeling of morbidity spreading by the example of the dynamics of influenza and ARVI. The analysis showed that the most perspective approach is an agent-based. Agent-based model with SEIR type which takes into account behavior, age groups, as well as special features of the influenza and ARVI has been developed. Software implementation of model allows forecasting the morbidity, as well as calculating the epidemic threshold has been realized using C# programming language. The relevance of the model has been tested on real statistics.