Research for Modeling the Evolutionary Law of Mass Incidents on System Dynamics

摘要

This paper aims to establish an improved model of evolutionary law of mass incidents. Based on the SIR model, we propose mass incidents' three related subjects: public, government and third-party departments, and quantitatively analyze the key factors influencing these related subjects. Then, we build the mass incident model by the method of system dynamics. The evolution process of mass incidents will be captured by the simulation. The simulation is done by using Any Logic software, and the results show that the model is available and reflect the evolutionary law of mass incidents. It is useful to provide theoretical support for the emergency management and help government departments effectively prepare for and respond to mass incidents.